Page 56 - Tehelka-May18

foreign affairs

US exit from Iran deal & impose

curbs a double whammy for India

US President Donald Trump’s decision to re-impose sanctions on that does business with a firm withIra-
Iran could have widespread political and financial repercussions nian links, the Europeans would have
to buck the dollar dominance of global
in West Asia and threatens to plunge the region into another finance to offer real resistance.
active war. Besides, the decision could adversely impact India’s Would they be prepared to go that
far, even with open support from Chi-
investment plans in Iran writes bharat hiteshi na or follow in the footsteps of Don-
ald Trump? The question is whether
he US President Donald own geopolitical identity. As a reper- Europe and other powers will stick
Trump’s decision to impose cussion, the move would further help together to respect the mandate of an
sanctions and unilater- China in positioning itself as the focus international agreement or buckle
ally exit the Iran deal is not of resistance to American arbitrariness. under American pressure. Since the
T a good decision and except India would do well to take a stand Europeans are convinced that for the
Saudi Arabia and Israel, the rest of the that can be justified on principle, rather US to unilaterally withdraw from the
world has criticised the decision. The than go by the number of defence con- deal is the height of irresponsibility,
decision should be a reason for India tracts the country has with Israel and they would have to put up some cred- numerous reports, including from soon be a nuclear arms race in West have expressed concern and regret
to feel concerned and worried. The US the US, the two main protagonists in a ible resistance. If Israel and the US stage American intelligence agencies, that Asia. Now, by pulling out of the deal he over the decision and have committed
President has threatened to re-impose pre-emptive strikes on Iran to thwart Iran is 100% compliant with the terms has manufactured a crisis in an already to stay in the deal. French President
sanctions and if Tehran declines to re- bomb-making, armed unrest and war of the agreement. volatile region. Significantly, the agree- Emmanuel Macron tweeted that “the
negotiate it could affect India in many By threatening curbs would spread across the region. Trump When the JCPOA was signed, many ment, for now, will still stand as Europe, nuclear non-proliferation regime is at
spheres including petroleum, ports, has made a very bad, horrible decision. had raised doubts about whether Iran Russia and China remain committed to stake”. These nations have urged Iran to
shipping and banking. Trump’s deci- and an imminent India must say so. could be trusted to comply with the it. Iran has responded cautiously, with continue to meet its own obligations of
sion to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal exit from the Iran President Donald Trump’s move is a terms. Three years later, unfortunately, the Foreign Minister saying he will en- the deal.
is also bad news for the oil market, re- huge setback to multilateral diplomacy it’s the US, which had initiated talks gage diplomatically with the remain- Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
mittance income flows from West Asia, deal, the US is doing and the rule-based international order. with Iran under the previous adminis- ing signatories. But the challenges will is treading cautiously and has asserted
India’s current account deficit and the serious damage to Under the Iran deal, signed in 2015 with tration that has acted to break the deal. emerge, not only for Europe but also his commitment to the deal. “I have or-
value of the rupee and inflation. the five permanent members of the If we read between the lines, Donald for other nations with strong trade ties dered the foreign ministry to negotiate
India needs to work with countries its own leadership UN Security Council, most of Iran’s en- Trump’s decision is not about nuclear with Iran, including India, once Ameri- with the European countries, China and
with a shared interest to ensure that and driving the riched uranium was shipped out of the weapons alone. If his administration can sanctions are in place. The US Russia in coming weeks. If at the end of
Trump’s exit from the Iran deal does not country, a heavy water facility was ren- was actually concerned about Iran ac- stands isolated in its decision. this short period we conclude that we
harm its investments and plans in the Europeans to dered inoperable and the operational quiring them, it would have supported can fully benefit from the JCPOA with
region. PM Narendra Modi will get the nuclear facilities were brought under a deal that closes the path towards Implications the cooperation of all countries, the
opportunity to discuss the issue with create their own international inspection. In July 2015, nuclear weapons for Iran. Instead, the Oil prices are likely to rise and could deal would remain,” he said in a speech.
like-minded leaders when he meets geopolitical identity when Barack Obama was at the helm, bigger concern for Trump is Iran’s re- lead to volatility in the financial mar- However, experts fear that in case of
them for two multilateral summits. But the US, the UK, Iran, China, France, Rus- accommodation in the global economic kets. The US has given European com- failure in reaching any deal, Iran may
the bigger worry is the increased like- sia, Germany and the European Union mainstream. They fear that if Iran’s eco- panies six months to wind up their resume uranium enrichment. Trump’s
lihood it imposes on the West Asian tiny camp that will face Europe, Russia, adopted the so-called Joint Compre- nomic profile rises, it will embolden it businesses in Iran or face sanctions. decision could also give hardliners who
region of yet another war that would China and most of the rest of the disap- hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), under to increase its regional presence, posing Trump said that any country that helps opposed the deal an edge over Rouhani.
plunge the region into active Shia- proving world. It is a foregone conclu- which Iran would eliminate stockpiles a strategic threat to the interests of the Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons
Sunni hostility and give new life to an sion that as America re-imposes sanc- of enriched uranium in return for lift- U.S.-Saudi-Israel axis. could face sanctions. Experts say the Impact on India
Islamic State currently on the wane. By tions on Tehran, covering companies ing nuclear-related economic sanc- Trump has always been a critic of hard line will give Trump an upper For India it is like “to be or not to be”
threatening sanctions and an immi- that do business with Iran, the nature tions. In Iran, the moderate govern- the Iran deal and the Islamic. Since his hand while negotiating with North but it appears that India may continue
nent exit from the Iran deal, the US is of resistance that Europe, Russia and ment of President Hassan Rouhani 2016 election campaign, Trump has op- Korean leader Kim Jong-un. In the run- to import Iran’s oil. The relationship
doing serious damage to its own leader- China put up would determine how far went ahead with the deal despite strong posed the deal, calling it a “disaster” and up to the announcement, European between the two goes beyond energy.
ship of rule-based internationalism and the damage goes. If the US threatens opposition from hardliners. Trump has “one-sided”. He had observed that if the leaders had lobbied for continuing the India has committed more than $500
driving the Europeans to create their to cut off dollar dealings for any bank just wrecked all these efforts, despite deal continued to stand, there would accord. The UK, France and Germany million to develop Chabahar port,

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