Singh Is In His Castle...

...but winning the go-ahead for the nuclear deal is only one step in a long battle ahead. The UPA now has to contend with inflation, charges of corruption and unreliable allies as it gears itself for a trust vote in the people’s court, writes HARINDER BAWEJA

The Steel Beneath:The PM's unusually forceful stance reclaimed ground occupied by his critics Photo: AFP

THIS IS why predicting politics is the sport of fools. Six months ago, the BJP was a rudderless party, without hope of turning its fortunes in the next general election. Two months ago — post the Karnataka polls — it was the Congress that was in a derelict state, without the juice of either leadership or ideas to resuscitate it, a certain write-off for the immediate future. For four years, the Left was the King Kong in the anteroom the government had to tread softly around. For four years, Amar Singh was the belle no one would date. For four years, Manmohan Singh was a prime minister whose writ seemed like water. One month ago, LK Advani appeared a frontrunner for the next prime ministership. One week ago, the UPA seemed to be on the mat. Two days ago, Mayawati was headed for coronation. One day ago, elections were imminent.

And now, in the most dramatic throwing away of its advantage by the BJP and the Congress seizing the trust vote thrust upon it, Manmohan Singh has completely altered the political mood and momentum in the country. Having teetered dangerously near the brink of electoral disaster, the Congress appears to be walking tall, exultant in a victory it claims it was always certain of (though hindsight can safely add conviction to bravado). The trust vote, and the all-clear for the Indo-US nuclear deal, safely in its grasp, the Congress may now speak loftily of “national interest”, of placing principle before pelf, may even bask in the after-glow of self-sacrifice with which Sonia Gandhi amazed the nation four years ago. Meanwhile, the Left’s aims have been rendered obscure and confounded; the BJP, despite the crores-forcross- voting scandal, looks increasingly like a very sore loser; and Mayawati, outside her own constituency, has slid from challenger to opportunist with nothing to show for last week’s backroom blitzkrieg.

Politically, one of Tuesday’s most substantial gainers has been the prime minister, the man who for four years has had his authority

You say we need roti. But where will it come from? It won’t come from heaven; it will only come from development, something on which the UPA is focusing — LALU PRASAD YADAV

questioned, dogged till the very afternoon of the vote with allegations of being a mere shadow to Sonia, the man against whom the rising crescendo of ridicule and contempt finally peaked with the Leader of the Opposition, LK Advani, naming him a “nikamma”. On the day of the vote, Manmohan Singh came to Parliament with a speech he never got to give — the House was in far too great an uproar — in any case, on a day notable for its display of parliamentary venality, it would perhaps have seemed out of place. As an exemplar of what democracy in India could embody, however, its concluding words are sterling. “I have often said that I am a politician by accident… Every day that I have been Prime Minister of India, I have tried to remember that the first ten years of my life were spent in a village with no drinking water supply, no electricity, no hospital, no roads and nothing that we today associate with modern living. I had to walk miles to school, I had to study in the dim light of a kerosene oil lamp… Whatever I have done in this high office, I have done with a clear conscience and the best interests of my country and our people at heart. I have no other claims to make.”

MANMOHAN SINGH’S impassioned speech gave vent to everything he had bottled up for four years. Bite and sarcasm are not words many would associate with Singh, but this speech had both and it had not been authored by a speech writer. The Prime Minister’s media advisor Sanjaya Baru told TEHELKA that the PM had personally penned the speech in which he finally hit out at the Left — “they wanted me to behave like their bonded slave” — and one in which he didn’t spare Advani either. “Can our nation

forgive a Home Minister who slept when the terrorists were knocking at the doors of our Parliament? Can our nation forgive a person who single-handedly provided the inspiration for the destruction of the Babri Masjid with all the terrible consequences that followed...? Can our nation approve the conduct of a Home Minister who was sleeping while Gujarat was burning, leading to the loss of thousands of innocent lives? Our friends in the Left Front should ponder over the company they are forced to keep because of miscalculations by their General Secretary” (another swipe, full frontal, at Prakash Karat).

Manmohan Singh as Indian politics’ undisputed “Mr Clean” will be more conscious than anyone else that though the outcome of the vote was his to savour, it was also robbed of some of its sheen by the three BJP MPs crying “bribery” as they brandished one crore rupees in the well of the House. All victories come with challenges, and this one cropped up even before the ayes and noes were cast. Only the previous night, Singh had dared anyone to bring proof of horse-trading — and there it was with the finger of blame pointing squarely at Samajwadi Party general secretary Amar Singh and Congress president Gandhi’s political advisor, Ahmed Patel (see box).

Although Amar Singh with characteristic bluster took the battle into the enemy camp — slamming the BJP for defamation and corruption, reminding the media of the TEHELKA sting that nailed former party president Bangaru Lakshman — the Congress will probably find corruption a less effective plank against its principal opposition. Spokesperson Abhishek Singhvi tries to brazen it through: “To find regional parties — especially one from UP — preaching to us about political morality is worse than the devil quoting the scriptures.” Raise the same questions with another spokesperson and his off-the-record response is: “Let’s face it. There is a taint and this is only the beginning. A lot will depend on whether we allow a fair inquiry and submit to its findings if found guilty. Till yesterday, the Opposition was beating us with the issues of inflation and national security. Corruption has now been added as another election issue.”

For every Congressman willing to go on record, there is another willing to offer greater candour off the record. Ask any Congressman

about Amar Singh and the answer is blunt: Amar Singh, as election baggage, is more dangerous than inflation. If the Left ultimately helped the Congress regain momentum by withdrawing support and forcing the trust vote, Amar Singh has robbed the UPA of an absolute victory. Instead of attention being focused on how as many as eight BJP MPs voted in favour of the UPA, the same BJP has found a whip it can regularly beat both the Congress and the SP with.

On the other hand, the Congress-SP alliance could equally end up being a plausible one. Both parties, after all, have Socialist pretensions but are comfortable with crony capitalism; both seek to align the Muslim vote and fight off Mayawati, the Left and the BJP. The tie-up could have an impact in UP in the coming elections, as Kapil Sibal, Minister for Science and Technology, suggests. “In UP, we need to fight the election in partnership because we found ourselves at the losing end when we went it alone. At least we have a winning partnership.”

Few know that it was the Congress that first sent feelers to the Samajwadi Party almost a year ago. Of course it suited the SP,

Laurels:Sonia Gandhi is basking in the glory of UPA's victory

licking its wounds after an unqualified defeat dealt by Mayawati, wresting power with a majority on her own. The feelers came at a time when the SP was mulling over the fact that it too needed an electoral alliance and the only palatable option was the Congress since it could not go with the BJP. As a senior SP MP put it, “It was becoming increasingly clear to us that we could not be anti-BJP and anti-Congress at the same time.” The only hitch was the Congressman who carried the message to Lucknow went with the proposal of an SP minus Amar Singh. This was unacceptable to Mulayam Singh Yadav, though he is well aware that his general secretary is not liked even by his own MPs. Amar Singh himself swore he’d resign from the SP at the mere suggestion that the party was thinking of joining hands with the Congress. The alliance was formalised only after the Congress agreed to Amar Singh being the interlocutor, the man packaging and marketing the new relationship. But the reasons for the alliance and its defence apart, the simple truth of the matter is the Congress and the SP need each other and the Congress is acutely conscious of the fact that his demands will go beyond the corporate agenda that is already fairly public.

FOR THE immediate term, the Congress is concentrating on how to bring what they see as their achievements — the Right to Information Act and the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) — back to centre stage. Generally upbeat though the party’s mood may be, there is also the realisation that the coalition, and its leading party in particular, is less than battle ready for the approaching polls. Singhvi likes to believe that the 275 ayes that have kept the UPA afloat are equal to what he calls a mini-election, “As far as the Opposition is concerned, this vote is a dangerous pointer to the mood of India. They should not create a self-serving disconnect between the people of India and their representatives.”

How far, however, are the people of India aware of what the nuclear deal can bring, assuming it translates into tangible benefits for them in the near future? And how can the promises of the atom compare to the immediate hardships of a spiralling inflation? Says a senior Congressman, “We will have to spin the nuclear deal around bijli, but before we come to bijli, we will have to explain what ‘parmanu shakti’ is all about.” Rahul Gandhi’s June 22 speech — in which he recounted the story of Kalavati, a Vidharbha widow, whose children study by oil lamp — may be a pointer to how the Congress plans to take the nuclear age to rural India, but if bijli is important, what then of roti, kapda aur makaan? Counters party spokesman Manish Tewari, “Inflation numbers have started stabilising. With the Left monkey off our back, reform initiatives will be rigorously pursued. We will make sure inflation is not an issue when we head into elections.”

There are some people in the country who don’t want India to grow beyond and above China and don’t want India to become a superpower — P. CHIDAMBARAM

BEFORE THE Congress hones its strategy for the general elections, it has to face Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Mizoram and Jammu and Kashmir. Plans being discussed within party circles include testing the waters in these states through the nuclear deal and the trust vote victory in Parliament. According to a senior Congressman, “We will package Manmohan Singh as a tough prime minister who took a tough decision in the national interest. He will be packaged as a leader who didn’t succumb to pressure only to cling to power.” Adds Abhishek Singhvi, “Don’t forget that the trust vote was not just about the nuclear deal. It took into account everything, including the government’s ability and performance so far. The country will soon see that the synergy and flexibility of not having your hands tied behind your back will have a vital effect on the economy.”

The propaganda and the pitch may be in place but a senior Congressman points to another core problem, saying, “Sure, the deal needs to be marketed as a development paradigm, but where is the rank and file? The Congress has become a ‘circular’ organisation. A circular goes out from the AICC (All India Congress Committee) to the PCC’s (Pradesh Congress Committee’s) and from there to the District Congress Committee’s and on again to the Block Committees. And that’s where the circulars lie — in various files.” The concern is not exaggerated. The Congress actually doesn’t have district committees in 250 districts. Take another example — Rajinder Kaur Bhattal was made the Punjab PCC chief one year ago but still has no committee to function with. The problem then is not only of how Congress spin doctors will translate an abstract deal into electoral parlance, but also of how the party will carry the deal to the people.

Youth Power:Rahul Gandhi's speech sought to seize the 'new India' mantle from the BJP

This is where Rahul’s big parliamentary outing will come in handy. One which could translate into a strong electoral pitch for the ‘new India’ mantle, the nationalist mantle which the BJP has been trying to seize for over a decade. A blueprint of sorts is ready, at least on paper. Counter communalism with nationalism. Take on the Left Front by stressing the point that the prime minister was willing to put his government in jeopardy for the sake of the people. Market the deal through civil energy. Use Rahul Gandhi to sell the party to a young India. Mock the UNPA for changing its leaders every day. In a fight that will no doubt get personal, Manmohan Singh will, according to PMO sources, take LK Advani and Prakash Karat head-on.

Just like he, uncharacteristically, did in his pre-vote speech. Manmohan Singh, it appears, has already repackaged himself and, in his new avatar, he certainly doesn’t mince his words. “When I look at the composition of the opportunistic group opposed to us, it is clear to me that the clash today is between two alternative visions of India’s future. The one vision represented by the UPA seeks to project India as a self confident and united nation moving forward to gain its rightful place in the comity of nations, making full use of the opportunities offered by a globalised world… The opposite vision is of a motley crowd opposed to us who have come together to share the spoils of office to promote their sectional, sectarian and parochial interests. Our Left colleagues should tell us whether Shri LK Advani is acceptable to them as a Prime Ministerial candidate. Shri LK Advani should enlighten us if he will step aside as Prime Ministerial candidate in favour of the choice of UNPA. They should take the country into confidence on this important issue…”

There will soon be another confidence vote and this one will be through the people’s court. The question of how durable or sustainable the Congress’ present halo is will soon have an answer. In October, to be precise.•