Now, To Live The Revolution

The Maoists churned the deep soil of Nepali politics. But the harvest is a critical season away

PRASHANT JHA, Nepali journalist

THE PEOPLE of Nepal have sprung a huge surprise. Defying calculations of Kathmandu pundits, major political parties and the Indian establishment, they have voted resoundingly for the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), which was waging an armed insurgency till as recently as April 2006, in the country’s constituent assembly (CA) elections.

The CA has 601 seats — 240 elected directly through the first past the post (FPTP) system, 335 elected under the proportional representation (PR) system to be divided among parties depending on their respective vote share, and 26 nominated experts. At the time of writing, the Maoists had won almost half the seats in FPTP and were leading in terms of vote share in PR. It is clear the former rebels will be the single largest party in the CA; what is to be seen is if they get enough seats in
PR to win a simple majority.

This is only the latest, though arguably the most important, step of a larger transformation that has been taking place in Nepal over the past three years. The peace process not only involved the Maoists and the political parties collaborating to overthrow the king and the former rebels ending their People’s War to enter the government. As significant has been the redefinition of the existing political mainstream. There is consensus about the need to restructure the State, with the Constituent Assembly seen as the most legitimate platform to decide on the changes. From a royal coup to a people’s movement, an armed insurgency to a peace process, and a centralised, Hindu, hill-centric establishment to a secular, federal, inclusive republic, history has been on fast-forward mode in India’s northern neighbour.

But it has not been a smooth ride. Elections were postponed twice in the past. Ethnic politics, especially by Madhesis in the country’s southern plains, opened up a cauldron of suppressed grievances. A State with limited capacity and a legitimacy crisis has had to deal with multiple demands. The royalists have tried to wreck the process. The army has been openly defiant of the civilian government. The Maoist leadership has struggled to keep its indoctrinated cadre, attuned to violence, in check. All parties have been fearful of electoral prospects, ever willing to shift poll dates.

Elections finally took place because of the overwhelming desire of the Nepali people to choose their representatives after a long hiatus of nine years. The populace also saw it as the logical conclusion of the peace process. Pressure from India, which has backed and micro-managed the process so far, also played its part. Despite skepticism by donors, and threats of some militant groups in the Terai, polling day was peaceful with high turnout across the country. On April 10, the Nepali political
class was out in the hills and plains seeking the mandate of the people. And what a mandate it has been. The Nepali Congress (NC), the country’s oldest party which has been at the helm in Kathmandu, suffered its worst drubbing ever. The dream of Girija Prasad Koirala to anoint his daughter Sujata as heir crashed with her defeat to a Madhesi leader in a Terai constituency. Indeed, the NC lost out its erstwhile vote base in the Terai to local Madhesi parties. Other NC big names who lost out included the party’s acting president Sushil Koirala, key intermediary in the peaceprocess Shekhar Koirala, and Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula. The people clearly rejected the NC for its disastrous record in government during the democratic interlude between 1990 and 2002. The party’s corrupt and disconnected leaders, constant infighting, an organisational machinery that remains defunct for most part, and its inability to keep in tune with changing aspirations did not help.

The Communist Party of Nepal (Unified-Marxist Leninist), which occupied the space of the “mainstream Left”, was expected to emerge as the biggest party in the CA. Banking on the image of neither being conservative like the NC nor violent and radical as the Maoists, the party’s general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal privately said he would be the country’s next PM. Unfortunately for him, he could not even manage to win his own seat, despite standing in two constituencies. The UML voter had shifted allegiance to the Maoists. All top leaders of the party — former deputy prime ministers Bamdev Gautam and KP Oli, standing committee members Raghuji Pant, Pradeep Nepal, Ishwor Pokharel among others — were defeated. The UML faces a real threat of its low level cadre switching to the Maoists immediately, and will have to engage in hard introspection about whether to be a junior ally of the Maoists within the broad Left platform or cosy with the NC to confront Maoists.

But interpreting the results only in terms of an anti-incumbency vote does not do justice to the scale of the Maoist victory. The Maoists won because for large sections, especially the marginalised, they represented change. With a country-wide organisation, the most committed cadre, a leadership which targeted the landless, Dalits, the excluded ethnic groups and women, and smart selection of candidates, the former rebels proved to the most astute political party in the fray. How they deliver on
promises, and reconcile the interests of the different classes which have voted for them while dealing with the compulsions of office are key challenges which will determine the future of Nepali politics.

THE UNEXPECTED results have thrown up a set of immediate and medium-term challenges. For one, there will be a change in the balance of power in Kathmandu. Prime Minister Koirala will have to give way and Baburam Bhattarai may take over the reins. Prachanda, who wants to be the president of the country, may hold himself back for now from getting into the government. The interim constitution stipulates that a coalition arrangement with all parties will continue to govern the country — the Maoists have already reached out to other forces and would be happy to make an inclusive government as long as they control the levers of power. A Maoist PM, however, poses difficult questions to the international community, especially the US which continues to characterise the Maoists as a terrorist outfit. The bureaucracy, security forces, army and the business elite will be uncomfortable with the arrangement but they have little choice for now.

The monarchy is to be formally abolished by the first sitting of the CA. The royalists are making some desperate moves to buy time, arguing that the implementation of the decision should wait for the promulgation of the constitution two years from now. The king has made statements supportive of the elections and is trying to establish back channel communication with Maoists, asking for “some space”. But Gyanendra’s game is most probably over and he will have to leave Narayanhiti sooner than later.

The more important debates and decisions in the CA and outside will be about the nature of federalism and the contours of the new federal units. 19,000 soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army of the Maoists are presently in UN-supervised cantonments — the peace agreement states they will be integrated in the national army. But the politically ambitious army chief, Rukmangat Katuwal, has made it clear he is not in favour of “security sector reform”. The way the tense Maoist-army relationship shapes up is critical.

India swung from a policy high on the evening of April 10 with successful elections to worry the next day when the results trickled in. No one in the establishment — South Block, NSA, RAW — was prepared for the Maoist victory. While some in Delhi may have been tempted to try to subvert the result by manipulating and engineering alliances of other parties, better sense seems to have prevailed. Pranab Mukherjee has called the results a positive development, and the envoy has said India is ready to work with whoever is in power in Kathmandu. It is critical that India stays the course in backing the peace process in Nepal which it so carefully conceived and backed. The links between Maoists and Naxalites are exaggerated by the right-wing and intelligence agencies — the Nepali Maoists are not exporting their revolution anywhere and India need not be alarmed on that count.

The country now heads towards an exciting phase of writing a new constitution. The onus lies on the Maoists to lead the country, in a nonviolent manner, respecting fundamental democratic freedoms, and recognising regional and global realities, the path to a naya Nepal.