As the Centre mulls political engagement to address the deepening crisis in Kashmir, it will not find the political outreach to Kashmir easy at all. And even if the government chooses to engage separatist groups, it will find them unwilling to respond because of the unproductive nature of suchÂ engagements in the past and the new complications and factors in play which have drastically shrunk Hurriyatâs space for talks.
On 22 August, following a meeting with the J&K Opposition delegation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had called a dialogue to âfind a permanent and lasting solution to the problem in Jammu and Kashmir within the framework of the Constitutionâ. He also expressed âdeep concern and painâ over the situation in Kashmir and agreed there was a need for a political engagement.
However, both Prime Minister and Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh have stopped short of outlining the form that this outreach will take. On his second visitÂ to the state in a month, Singh offered no talks to the separatists. Instead he sought to address the situation through some empathetic talk and assurances of administrative measures, like the early review of the use of pellet guns and the appointment of a nodalÂ officer who would look into the complaints of Kashmiri youth studying or working in other parts ofÂ the country.
For now, the Centre has talked broadly and vaguely about the engagement: there is talk of a solution within the ambit of the Constitution but no word on its possible contours. In case of J&K, restoration of the stateâs lost autonomy could be well within the constitutional framework. But the BJP, given its longstanding political position on the state, will hardly go the distance.
Similarly, the government has talked about dialogue without specifying who the government will talk to. It will hardly do if the government talks to the mainstream political parties, as they donât question the political status quo and their politics doesnât lead to frequent anti-New Delhi uprisings. By the same token, a stage-managed process of talking to obscure and generally unidentified delegations of people will hardly change anything. What will make a difference is not only an offer of a meaningful dialogue which not only promises staying the course but isÂ alsoÂ held with the right interlocutors. And in Kashmir, only separatist groups fit this bill.
But it is not so simple. For one, the kind of the open-mindedness such an engagement needs, the BJP government in New Delhi does not possess. The party champions an extreme integrationist view on Kashmir, one which includes abrogation of Article 370 which gives J&K its autonomous status â albeit drastically eroded â in Indian Union. And Hurriyat, which represents the separatist extreme in Kashmir politics, cannot be approached from an integrationist standpoint. It will kill the political raison dâetre of the separatist amalgam should they become part of such an engagement, especially when Pakistan is also being left out of the process.
Already, chairman of one Hurriyat faction Mirwaiz Umar Farooq has said that any dialogue on the state will have to include Pakistan. âA solution to larger Kashmir problem canât be found out without Pakistan,â he said. âFor a Kashmir dialogue to succeed and get to an acceptable solution, it should be ideally held
simultaneously among the three parties to the dispute â India, Pakistan and Kashmiris.â
But in the existing political scenario, there are fewer prospects for such advanced level of dialogue. More so, with relations with Pakistan already in tatters. The ties have sunk to a new low following Â theÂ acrimonious exchanges and the blame game over the prevailing turmoil in Kashmir. And with Islamabad out of the loop, Hurriyat will hardly find it politically tenable to be a part of the dialogue process with New Delhi, nor worth its while given such parleys by their very nature drastically circumscribe the scope of a political settlement and limit it to a little more than some local and minor political and administrative re-adjustment. Also, on past evidence, even such adjustments are unlikely to materialise and the Centre has often pulled out of the processÂ at the first sign of normalcy.
For now, the Centre has talked broadly and vaguely about the engagement: there is talk of a solution within the ambit of the Constitution but no word on its possible contours
âWe have a bitter experience of past engagements,â says Hurriyat leader Shahidul Islam. âWe took a huge risk by engaging with New Delhi on the assurance of a permanent solution to Kashmir. But New Delhi unilaterally pulled out of them when it saw some normalcy return.â
Under the circumstances, New Delhi is left with no option but to try and use more force to suppress the uprising and hope that fatigue sets in and leads to normalcy. But that will leave Kashmir simmering until another mass outburst in near future.
Another new complication that has crept in is the ad hoc unity among the separatist leadership. Syed Ali Shah, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and Yasin Malik have come together to commandeer the current unrest. So, response to any invite for talks from the Centre will have to be jointly decided by them. In the past, the Centre only talked to the Hurriyat faction led by Mirwaiz, something that was vehemently opposed by the Geelani group as a sell-out to New Delhi.
Several rounds were held between the Mirwaiz-led delegation and the NDA government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee which was called an âinstitutionalised dialogueâ. The process was carried over into the succeeding UPA regime but was discontinued when the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sought to broaden the dialogue to include other âstakeholdersâ in the state. Hurriyat, which claims to be the sole representative of the anti-status quo political camp, refused to be âdowngraded as one among many political stakeholders in Kashmirâ.
This was followed up with a secret dialogue with the then home minister P Chidamabaram in 2009, which too was abandoned when it was exposed by a newspaper. Following this, a veteran member of the Mirwaiz faction Fazl-e-Haq Qureshi was shot at by unidentified gunmen. Qureshi hasnât since completely
recovered. Earlier, suspected militants killed the uncle of Mirwaiz Molvi Mushtaq and burnt his familyâs century-old Islamia School for talking to the Centre in defiance of the hardline separatist opposition.
âIf there is an offer of talks from India, it will be duly considered by the united separatist leadership,â says Altaf Shah, a senior leader of the Hurriyat faction led by Geelani. âBut the offer has to come in the light of Geelani Sahibâs four conditions for an engagement.â
The conditions are of impossible nature and include accepting the disputed nature of Jammu and Kashmir and announcing the acceptance of the peopleâs right to self-determination, announcing rapid demilitarisation process of population centres and repealing laws like AFSPA and Public Safety Act.
This hardly leaves a scope for any political engagement with Kashmir in the absence of a dialogue with Pakistan. Following failures of talks with moderate separatists, the thinking in New Delhi has been that the dialogue with Pakistan is synonymous with the talks with Hurriyat. And for the past some years thisÂ approach to Kashmir has served New Delhi well. But now relations with Islamabad have sunk to a new low.Â And, meanwhile, the separatists are back on the ascendant following a renewed eruption in Valley. This has made things more complicated. There is no way to politically reach out to the separatist sentiment in Valley, except through the severely discredited mainstream parties. And this will hardly help the situation.